A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
